Obama Says Georgia the Key to Keeping U.S. Senate Control

Now since Democrats have given up on Kentucky, only two Republican United States Senate seats are vulnerable: Kansas and Georgia. Last Thursday, President Obama himself weighed in on the United States Senate landscape. According to the Washington Free BaconObama explained in a radio interview with Atlanta’s V-103:

“These last two years I want a Congress that does work, and the only way I can do that, even though I am not on the ballot is to make sure that our people turnout to vote. … And when we do, we win. And no place is a better example than in Georgia. Michelle Nunn will win the Senate if there’s high turnout among Democrats. And if there’s low turnout, or just ordinary turnout, then she won’t win. And if Michelle Nunn wins, that means that Democrats keep control of the Senate. And that means that we can keep on doing some good work.”

While Georgia was one of just twenty-four states Mitt Romney won in 2012, the state’s demographics are changing. The Hispanic population doubled from the 2000 Census, now representing 9 percent of the Peach State’s population. The African American population is about 31 percent.

Writing for the left-leaning New RepublicNate Cohn explained:

“Georgia’s black turnout wasn’t so bad in 2010, despite a bad national climate and without a competitive federal election. According to the Georgia Secretary of State, the black share of the electorate only declined slightly, from 30 percent in 2008 to 28.3 percent in 2010. The white share of the electorate increased from 64.1 to 66.3 percent. That drop-off might hurt a Democratic candidate by a net-3 points, but that’s not the massive gap suggested by the 2008 run-offs. Part of the explanation: turnout was 20 percent higher in 2010 than the 2008 run-offs.

Demographic change helps counter some of the drop-off. The state’s non-white population is booming and, as a result, the white share of the electorate dropped from 64.1 percent in 2008 to 61.4 percent in 2012. A similar decline was observed among registered voters. As a result of these demographic changes, we would expect the 2014 midterm electorate to be about as diverse as the 2008 general electorate. If 2014 turnout drops off at the same rate that it did in 2010, we might guesstimate that the electorate would be 63.7 percent white, compared to 64.1 percent in 2008 and 66.3 percent in 2010.”

Here is what Obama and the Democrats don’t understand: the non-white population is turning against them.

A Survey USA/NBC-11 poll found Perdue actually leading among Hispanic voters, 44 percent to 32 percent over Nunn. While, the survey had a small sampling size, a nationwide Pew poll released on Wednesday revealed that just 57 percent of said they would support a Democratic candidate for congress, down 8 percentage points from the 2010 midterm elections.

Democratic support from the extremely reliable African American voting bloc also took a hit. A separate Survey USA poll found Perdue getting an impressive 15 percent of the African-American vote. A Landmark Communications poll released last week found Perdue obtaining 10 percent of the black vote, which is still pretty impressive for a GOP candidate.

The most recent RealClearPolitics average found Perdue leading with 45.8 percent, Nunn with 45.3 percent, and Libertarian Party nominee Amanda Swafford with 3.7 percent. If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote, the election will head to a January 6 runoff, where anything can happen.

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